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Bitwise expert pegs 50/50 chance for Ethereum ETF nod, eyes $88k Bitcoin peak by 2024


A Bitwise researcher, Ryan Rasmussen, has indicated a balanced perspective on the potential approval of spot Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the upcoming months, assigning a 50% probability to both possible outcomes.

During an interview with Yahoo Finance on Feb. 26, Rasmussen expressed uncertainty regarding the market’s readiness for such a development, as per the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) preferences.

“It’s about a 50/50 percent chance that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection,” the analyst said suggesting a split probability for the future of spot Ethereum ETFs.

This viewpoint is echoed by Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Global Head of Research, who also estimated a nearly 50% chance of approval in May. Contrastingly, predictions on the Polymarket website are slightly less optimistic, showing a 44% likelihood of approval.

The SEC is set to make a decision on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application by May 23, with expectations to concurrently decide on other similar applications. This approach mirrors the SEC’s handling of spot Bitcoin ETF applications in the past.

Rasmussen highlighted the SEC’s previous rejections of Bitcoin ETFs until faced with legal action from Grayscale, which challenged the dismissal of its application. The potential necessity of a lawsuit for the approval of Ethereum ETFs remains uncertain, as does the possibility of any applicant initiating such legal action at this stage.

Despite not having a pending application for a spot Ethereum ETF, Bitwise saw approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF earlier on Jan. 10. Rasmussen conveyed satisfaction with the performance of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly noting that Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (BITB) attracted $1 billion in assets, contributing to a collective inflow of more than $15 billion into the ETFs.

He further speculated on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs and similar funds on cryptocurrency prices, attributing recent price increases to the entry of institutional investors previously on the sidelines. Rasmussen remarked on the potential for similar effects on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies with the introduction of additional ETFs.

Additionally, Rasmussen touched upon various factors influencing the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s Dencun upgrade, fluctuations in NFT trading volumes, and growth in Solana’s price. He suggested that the cryptocurrency sector is emerging from a challenging 2022 into a multi-year bull cycle.

Concluding his insights, Rasmussen reaffirmed Bitwise’s price predictions, maintaining that Bitcoin is on course to achieve a new all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024, signaling a robust outlook for the cryptocurrency market amidst evolving regulatory and investment landscapes.

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