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Ethereum Price Overtakes BTC -Is $4k ETH a Valid Prediction?


Ethereum price surged past $3,000 on Feb. 20, eclipsing Bitcoin’s 22% growth; ETH 2.0 staking deposit trends observed this week suggest the gap could widen even further.

The media frenzy surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approval saw BTC price outperform ETH in the early days of the 2024 market rally. However, this market trend has flipped since the start of February. 

As investors make long-term bets, the bulls may capitalize on the rising ETH 2.0 staking deposits and declining market supply to drive a rally above $4,000. 

Ethereum surpasses BTC despite record-breaking ETF inflows

Bitcoin has dominated media headlines in recent weeks and for good reason. Since the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 11, BTC has received unprecedented interest from institutional inflows. 

As of Feb. 19, after barely six weeks of trading, the 10 newly-launched ETFs had acquired over 654,000 BTC, worth more than $36 billion. Despite the record-breaking BTC ETF inflows, ETH price performance has managed to skip past BTC.

Ethereum (ETH) vs. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance | Feb.1 to Feb. 20, 2023
Ethereum (ETH) vs. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance | Feb.1 to Feb. 20, 2023 | Source: TradingView

The historical price chart shows that BTC prices increased 24.2% in February, rising from $41,864 to a monthly peak of $52,985. 

Meanwhile, ETH price has delivered a much more impressive showing, with a 33.7% rise from $2,241 to the $3,000 milestone on Feb. 20, the first time since Apr. 26, 2022. 

Investors place long-term bets on Ethereum

Thanks to the seamlessly executed Dencun upgrade, Ethereum has received its fair share of media praise.

The on-chain data trail shows that investors playing the long game, staking coins to front-run gains from an imminent ETH ETF approval, have been pivotal to ETH’s blistering price action, which eclipsed BTC in February. 

Investors have pulled coins worth over $1.5 billion in the past week as they deposited 504,799 ETH into ETH 2.0 staking contracts on Feb. 13 and Feb. 20. 

This saw the total staking deposits on the Proof of Stake (PoS) network rise to 30,064,242 ETH, according to the official data culled from the Beacon chain. 

Investors Deposit 504,799 ETH into Ethereum 2.0 Beacon.chain | Feb 13 - Feb. 20
Investors Deposit 504,799 ETH into Ethereum 2.0 Beacon.chain | Feb. 13 – Feb. 20 | Source: BeaconCha.in

During a bull market, a significant increase in staking deposits is a positive trend for any PoS network. An increase in staking deposits enhances network security and stability amid rising network activity and signals that most large ETH investors are looking to play the long game despite elevated prices. 

A $1.5 billion increase in ETH staking while prices are trending at a 2-year peak indicates a surge in investor confidence and commitment to the network’s security. 

If this trend persists, the drop-off in market supply amid soaring market demand could see ETH price extend its lead over BTC in the weeks ahead, especially considering that the Bitcoin network lacks a comparable large-scale staking yield incentive.  

Forecast: Can Ethereum’s price reach $3,500? 

Drawing data-driven insights from market trends, ETH price appears primed for further upswing toward $3,500 in the weeks ahead. 

However, historical accumulation trends suggest that ETH faces stiff resistance at the $3,200 territory.

IntoTheBlock’s global in/out of the money (GIOM) data groups all existing ETH investors by their entry prices. The GIOM shows that 12.9 million existing holders had acquired 4.74 million ETH at the minimum price of $3,212. 

However, considering this is the largest cluster of holders that bought ETH above the current prices, a decisive breakout above $3,200 could effectively open the door to a larger upswing towards the $3,500 mark, as predicted. 

Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecast, February 2024
Ethereum (ETH) Price Forecast, February 2024 | Source: IntoTheBlock

The bears could still invalidate this lofty prediction if the price tumbles below $2,500. Still, in this scenario, the 5.2 million addresses that acquired 4.1 million ETH at the minimum price of $2,548 could mount a significant buy-wall.

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